A lot has happened since our last quarterly letter: voters elected a new administration, the Federal Reserve Board cut the Fed Funds rate (short-term interest rates) to 4½% (down from 5½% as late as early September), inflation declined (if you can believe government figures), GDP grew by an estimated 3%,…

On September 18th, the Federal Reserve Board (the “Fed”) lowered interest rates for the first time in 4½ years. This comes after one of the most dramatic series of rate increases in history, from almost 0% in March of 2022 to 5¼% in August of 2023. That peak rate was…

The second quarter ended much as it began with technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks leading the charge to the exclusion of most other shares. The S&P 500 gained 4.4% for the quarter while the Russell 2000 Index of small cap companies posted a loss of -3.3%. For the year…

Through the first quarter, the stock market continued to advance even as the Federal Reserve Board (the “Fed”) kept interest rates at recent highs. The S&P 500 rose 10%, the Nasdaq Index climbed 9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 5%. Bonds continued to decline in price, and…