Whether you are a long time homeowner or in the market to buy or sell real estate, we are all impacted by the ebb and flow of the housing cycle. In the last 15 years we have experienced the lowest of the lows (mortgage crisis in 2009) to crazy bidding wars (Covid 2021).
Either can cause concern and make dramatic differences in the current value of a home and create big changes for buyers, sellers, and even renters. So let’s discuss the current state of housing in the United States.
But first… Here is my boy Ham on his recent 7th birthday! Ham usually celebrates birthdays with a meat cake and a nap.
Now back to business.
After years of runaway growth, the housing market is cooling…like a pot taken off the flame.
Still warm. Still active. But no longer boiling over. And the numbers back it up.
Across the U.S., 117,000 new single-family homes are sitting on the market. That’s the highest level since July 2009 and a 31% jump from last year.1
Regionally, some places are feeling it more than others:
- Texas: Active listings are 53% above normal2
- Florida: Tampa and Jacksonville lead the country in price cuts3
- California: Bay Area pending sales just saw their weakest March since 20124
Even luxury buyers are slowing down.
In April, sales of high-end homes dropped 10% year-over-year.5
That’s not about mortgage rates…many of these buyers pay cash.
It’s about confidence.
That said, prices haven’t plunged.
Home values in the 20 largest metro areas dipped just 0.12% in March.
That’s the first monthly decline after 15 straight gains.6
It’s a small move, but a clear signal that the heat is coming down.
So why does this matter?
Real estate isn’t just a reflection of the economy.
It’s often a preview.
Housing tends to be one of the earliest sectors to respond when things start to shift. That’s why many economists watch it closely. It affects jobs, consumer spending, and local tax revenues.
When people get cautious about housing, that caution can spread. We’re not sounding alarms, but we are paying attention.
So where do we go from here?
It’s tough to say.
There are many variables still in play. Interest rates. Inflation. Employment trends.
That’s why this is a good moment to pause, reassess, and make sure your financial strategy still fits the environment.
If you’re curious how the current changes in real estate could affect your future plans or investment strategy, I’m here to help you think it through.
As always, I say goodbye with a Dad Joke:
My son Nathan said he didn’t understand cloning.
I told him “that makes two of us”! 😉
Sincerely,
Art
Arthur Creel, Investment Advisor
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P.S. One thing I’ve learned over the years: markets don’t move in straight lines. Deliberate decisions are rarely made in reaction to headlines. Whether you’re thinking about real estate or any other part of your financial picture, sometimes the most valuable thing is just talking it through with someone who’s seen these cycles before.
Sources
- Fast Company, 2025 [URL: https://www.fastcompany.com/91341501/housing-market-homebuilder-unsold-inventory-swells-to-2009-levels]
- Newsweek, 2025 [URL: https://www.newsweek.com/texas-faces-major-housing-market-correction-prices-drop-across-state-2070190]
- Realtor.com, 2025 [URL: https://www.realtor.com/research/april-2025-data/]
- San Francisco Chronicle, 2025 [URL: https://web.archive.org/web/20250602214059/https://www.sfchronicle.com/realestate/article/home-sale-price-bay-area-20296381.php]
- Redfin, 2025 [URL: https://www.redfin.com/news/luxury-homes-market-april-2025/]
- Marketwatch, 2025 [URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-in-the-biggest-20-markets-decline-for-the-first-time-in-over-two-years-heres-where-theyre-expected-to-fall-the-most-14cebe4f]
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